Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 50% on 21 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 42 daily closes on record from 21 Aug 2026 to 1 Oct 2026, the highest close was 50% on 21 Aug 2026 and the lowest 0.6% on 1 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 27.5% on 22 Aug 2026. $15.6K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 1, 7:49 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 42 points, 21 Aug 2026 – 1 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2026 | 50.0% |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 0.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Attached-Prairie | Yes | 328.21 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 264.34 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 80 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Heidi Overton is confirmed as Commissioner of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Heidi Overton's nomination is formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The Senate must confirm this nominee as Commissioner of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/heidi-overton-confirmed-as-fda-commissioner-by
| himken | Yes | 66 |
| Rapid Quasar 51BA | Yes | 61.73 |
| crossFiter | Yes | 50 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 39.9 |
| PPMT | Yes | 29.11 |
| gonnakilmyslf | Yes | 26 |
| a5533 | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
