Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.4%. Yes opened at 44.5% on 30 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 26 daily closes on record from 30 Jan 2026 to 28 Feb 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 44.5% on 30 Jan 2026 and the lowest 1.6% on 28 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 32 points down, to 13% on 31 Jan 2026. $12.57K traded over the market's life.
16 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 5:31 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 26 points, 30 Jan 2026 – 28 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2026 | 44.5% |
| 28 Feb 2026 | 1.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| nennou | Yes | 2.2K |
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 554.99 |
| emapol4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31
| Yes |
| 73.33 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 60 |
| S888 | Yes | 50 |
| t189 | Yes | 50 |
| asfdt22 | Yes | 50 |
| asfdt18 | Yes | 50 |
| Silver-Dolphin | Yes | 37.36 |
| 0x152 | Yes | 30 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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