Analytics
Resolved No on 2 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.8%. Yes opened at 21% on 24 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 24 Jun 2026 to 2 Jul 2026, the highest close was 21% on 24 Jun 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 26 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 0.1% on 26 Jun 2026. $8.9K traded over the market's life.
20 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 3, 4:01 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 24 Jun 2026 – 2 Jul 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Jun 2026 | 21.0% |
| 2 Jul 2026 | 1.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 20.97K |
| balthazar | Yes | 15.07K |
| Bigggggggg | Yes | 651.07 |
| fattig | Yes | 156.51 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public. GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/gpt-5pt6-released-onptptpt-20260623051439980
| poposub | Yes | 149.88 |
| Novus0rdoSeclorum | Yes | 147 |
| FredericChopin | Yes | 100 |
| Gemini3.5pro | Yes | 98.17 |
| J25525 | Yes | 50.02 |
| cwc909 | Yes | 50 |
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