Analytics
Yes is at 50.5%, up 5 points from 45.5% when the market opened on 22 Apr 2026.
Across the 186 daily closes on record from 22 Apr 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 64% on 23 Apr 2026 and the lowest 36% on 2 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 53.5%; a month before, 52%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 64% on 23 Apr 2026.
It is one of 12 markets under “Next Prime Minister of Italy?”.
$32.23 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $14.55K since listing. The order book holds $36.11K, with a 5.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 397 trades, $2.66K bought Yes and $2.23K bought No.
The largest Yes position is SnapElectionAvoider with 4.7K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 7.3K. Ten wallets hold 80% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2029.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:39 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 186 points, 22 Apr 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 30%–70%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Apr 2026 | 45.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 51.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 7.29K |
| SnapElectionAvoider | Yes | 4.73K |
| Mature-Monsoon | Yes | 527.09 |
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-italy
| PwnedUrChoice | Yes | 424.42 |
| Love.always.wins.over.hatred.and.envy | Yes | 413.18 |
| Vic7hor | No | 390.84 |
| Ursula01 | Yes | 336.99 |
| Filobestia | No | 291.1 |
| FrozenParasite | Yes | 271.94 |
| EmaMT | Yes | 221.73 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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