
Resolved No on 1 Sep 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 34.5% on 25 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 39 daily closes on record from 25 Jul 2025 to 1 Sep 2025, the highest close was 36.5% on 26 Jul 2025 and the lowest 0.5% on 30 Aug 2025. Its largest one-day move was 13 points up, to 28% on 2 Aug 2025. $212.6K traded over the market's life.
133 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 2, 9:19 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 39 points, 25 Jul 2025 – 1 Sep 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2025 | 34.5% |
| 1 Sep 2025 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 5.65K |
| Nancy-Pelosi | Yes | 5.5K |
| rxrx | Yes | 4.02K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ghislaine Maxwell is granted a sentence reduction, transfer to a less restrictive facility, or any other formal legal benefit by the U.S. federal government in connection with cooperation or information she provides to U.S. authorities by August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Qualifying cooperation may include providing testimony, depositions, or other information to federal prosecutors, law enforcement agencies, or Congress. The benefit must be explicitly linked to such cooperation, either through government statements or a consensus of credible reporting. Examples of qualifying benefits include but are not limited to: - A sentence reduction via Rule 35(b) or similar motion - A transfer to a lower-security facility tied to cooperation - Entry into witness protection A presidential commutation or pardon, will qualify regardless of if directly attributed to cooperation. Changes to her confinement not clearly tied to cooperation will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-ghislaine-maxwell-cut-a-deal-with-the-feds-by-august-31
| Yes |
| 1.85K |
| MatMatMat | Yes | 1.8K |
| vigna.eth | Yes | 1K |
| phastra | Yes | 853.45 |
| rbbor993 | Yes | 742.23 |
| Vivacious-Mister | Yes | 718.9 |
| andylooney | Yes | 567.7 |
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