Analytics
Trading ended on 28 Oct 2026 with Yes at 69%; Polymarket has not settled it yet.
Across the 7 daily closes on record from 20 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 69% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 35.5% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 62.5%. Its largest one-day move was 18 points up, to 69% on 30 Oct 2026.
Gadi Eizenkot is the favourite of the 19 outcomes in “Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's next government?”, ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu at 31%.
$150.64K has traded since listing.
The largest Yes position is cigarettes with 17.1K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 44.2K. Ten wallets hold 74.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Polymarket record as of Oct 30, 12:55 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 20 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Oct 2026 | 55.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 69.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 44.19K |
| cigarettes | Yes | 17.15K |
| Contestable-Parfait | Yes | 7.66K |
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the first individual who is officially tasked by the President of Israel with forming a government following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the first individual who is officially tasked with forming a government after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally tasked with forming a government by the President of Israel. Recommendations made to the President by parties or members of the Knesset, and the President's consultations, will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no individual is tasked with forming a government by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-receive-the-first-mandate-to-form-israels-next-government-20261019144924877
7 more outcomes, none above 0.1%.
| LJa7io23MCv954j | Yes | 6.55K |
| M2sx92kljs42 | Yes | 4.74K |
| Sdfghji | Yes | 4.59K |
| vinii | No | 4.25K |
| Swift Orbit ABF8 | No | 2.8K |
| Prickly-Eyrie | Yes | 2.73K |
| AlAhmeda | No | 2.53K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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