Will Fatima Shaban win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?

Resolved

Yes, settled Sep 4, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$65.0K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Sep 4, 2026 UTC

Topic roomWorld elections

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 4 Sep 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 85.5%. Yes opened at 36.5% on 21 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 15 daily closes on record from 21 Aug 2026 to 4 Sep 2026, the highest close was 85.5% on 4 Sep 2026 and the lowest 31% on 22 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 18 points up, to 48.5% on 24 Aug 2026. $65.04K traded over the market's life.

53 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:03 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 21 Aug 2026 – 4 Sep 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
21 Aug 2026	36.5%
4 Sep 2026	85.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
anoin123	No	4.44K
Indigo Signal 2966	No	3.44K
catalanpaths	No	3K

10 of 53 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).