Analytics
Yes is at 1.4%, down 31 points from 32% when the market opened on 6 Aug 2026.
Across the 80 daily closes on record from 6 Aug 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 38.6% on 15 Sep 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 20 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 0.3%; a month before, 0.3%. Its largest one-day move was 32 points down, to 6.5% on 16 Sep 2026.
Evangelina Moreno Guerra ranks fourth of the 21 outcomes in “Baja California Governor Election Winner”. Julieta Ramírez Padilla leads at 70.8%; Ismael Burgueño Ruiz is at 12.2%.
$123.76 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $3.71K since listing. The order book holds $12K, with a 1.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 129 trades, $293.64 bought Yes and $739 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 166 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 993. Ten wallets hold 94.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 7 Jun 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:53 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 80 points, 6 Aug 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | 32.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 1.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 993.06 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 166.23 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 120 |
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/baja-california-governor-election-winner-20260803170329
9 more outcomes, none above 0.1%.
| Sweltering-Passion-Fragrance | Yes | 120 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 114.52 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
| Pointed-Wilderness | Yes | 80 |
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 73.91 |
| 843Cc4C8e6dc29A4581126660814B0a6eF6A0734. | Yes | 72.82 |
| Original-Anything-Petition | Yes | 40 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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