Analytics
Yes is at 28%, down 22 points from 50% when the market opened on 21 Aug 2026.
The high was 50% on 21 Aug 2026 and the low 21.5% on 16 Sep 2026. A week ago Yes was at 31%; a month ago, 27%. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 30% on 22 Aug 2026.
It is one of 5 markets under “When will Ethereum hit $4k?”.
$8.39K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $13.68K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 126 trades, $1.17K bought Yes and $1.69K bought No.
The largest Yes position is getbipped with 819 shares; the largest No position is Spinch with 1.1K. Ten wallets hold 93.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Apr 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 7, 4:39 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 49 points · 21 Aug 2026 – 7 Oct 2026 · axis zoomed to 10%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2026 | 50.0% |
| 7 Oct 2026 | 28.0% |
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) from the creation of this market until 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than $4,000. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/when-will-ethereum-hit-4k
| gambller |
| Yes |
| 540.74 |
| romax09 | No | 540 |
| arishone | Yes | 428.8 |
| faceglobally | Yes | 391.74 |
| AJSV | Yes | 169.37 |
| nastynian | No | 150 |
| Scented-Symmetry | Yes | 100 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
