Analytics
Yes is at 34.5%, down 23 points from 57.5% when the market opened on 21 Aug 2026.
The high was 57.5% on 21 Aug 2026 and the low 31% on 17 Sep 2026. A week ago Yes was at 38%; a month ago, 35.5%. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 35.5% on 22 Aug 2026.
It is one of 5 markets under “When will Ethereum hit $4k?”.
$5.34K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $15.58K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 79 trades, $977.64 bought Yes and $953.84 bought No.
The largest Yes position is arishone with 489 shares; the largest No position is Urus12 with 1.2K. Ten wallets hold 89.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jul 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 10, 9:05 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 52 points · 21 Aug 2026 – 10 Oct 2026 · axis zoomed to 20%–70%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2026 | 57.5% |
| 10 Oct 2026 | 34.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Urus12 | No | 1.21K |
| arishone | Yes | 488.77 |
| Elastic-Goggles | Yes | 400 |
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) from the creation of this market until 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than $4,000. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/when-will-ethereum-hit-4k
| romax09 |
| No |
| 390 |
| Alfayonaa | Yes | 300 |
| gaserart | No | 288.6 |
| Anchored-Leaf | Yes | 277.78 |
| getbipped | Yes | 194.96 |
| AJSV | Yes | 184.04 |
| Shabby-Era | Yes | 121.14 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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