Analytics
Yes is at 52.5%, up 20 points from 32.5% when the market opened on 7 Aug 2026.
Across the 76 daily closes on record from 7 Aug 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 60.5% on 9 Aug 2026 and the lowest 32.5% on 7 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 52.5%; a month before, 54.5%. Its largest one-day move was 14 points up, to 60.5% on 9 Aug 2026.
Dune: Part Three is the favourite of the 6 outcomes in “Oscars 2027: Best Visual Effects Winner”, ahead of Project Hail Mary at 25.5%.
$18.05K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $6.98K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 180 trades, $1.49K bought Yes and $3.27K bought No; the largest was a $2.1K buy of No at 42.5¢.
The largest Yes position is ImJustKen with 2K shares; the largest No position is EsperanzasDESTROYER with 1.7K. Ten wallets hold 91.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jul 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 2:50 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 76 points, 7 Aug 2026 – 29 Oct 2026, chart shows 20%–70%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | 32.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 52.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 1.95K |
| EsperanzasDESTROYER | No | 1.75K |
| predictiondiablo |
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Visual Effects. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Visual Effects when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/oscars-2027-best-visual-effects-winner-1754500000000
| No |
| 1.5K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 472.01 |
| green9 | Yes | 441.59 |
| doil | Yes | 242.88 |
| SmartBoyBilly | Yes | 221.98 |
| Emerald Pioneer D644 | Yes | 219.64 |
| Indigo Horizon 0E88 | Yes | 218.52 |
| Solar Beacon D366 | Yes | 194.95 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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