Analytics
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“Will Democrats win young men in the midterms?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Which party will win young men in the midterms?”. The Yes price is the crowd's implied probability that the question resolves Yes; every trade on the public order book moves it.
Trading is open until Nov 7, 2026. As of Sep 14, 3:24 PM, Yes trades at 64.5¢, a 64.5% implied chance, $700.28 traded in the last 24 hours, $355.88 resting in the order book, a 33.0% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 24 hourly price points from Sep 13, 2026 to Sep 14, 2026 (Yes between 65.5% and 65.5%); 12 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 99.2% of the loaded shares; 16 recent public fills from 14 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of men in the age range of 18-24 in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN. This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026. In the event that CNN does not provide numbers for men in the 18-24 age range, this market will resolve based on the narrowest age range that begins with the youngest age for which data is available. In the event of a tie for first place, this market will resolve based on the party, among those tied, whose name comes first alphabetically. In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below. In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by cbsnews.com or, should cbsnews.com also not provide applicable polling, foxnews.com. If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-democrats-win-young-men-in-the-midterms
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ means the crowd gives Yes about a 21.5% chance right now. It moves with every trade, so it is a live forecast, not a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Dollars resting in the order book, waiting to be traded against. Deep liquidity lets a large order fill near the quoted price; thin liquidity means the price jumps when someone trades size.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Viserys | Yes | 257.91 |
| polybettor | No | 200.35 |
| Dr.PNL | No | 42.54 |
| tradetosurvive1 | No | 23.85 |
| ramc2005 | No | 23 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 20 |
| LornaPredicts | No | 19.99 |
| AJSV | Yes | 18.6 |
| a5533 | Yes | 5 |
| Misty Oracle B1DE | Yes | 4.97 |