Question 1

What is the “Will Daniel Noboa win by 4-6%?” market asking?

Accepted Answer

It asks whether the following will happen: Will Daniel Noboa win by 4-6%? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “Ecuador Presidential Election Margin of Victory”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

Question 2

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

Accepted Answer

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

Question 3

When does this market close?

Accepted Answer

Trading is scheduled to close on Apr 13, 2025 UTC. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

Question 4

How does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

General elections were held in Ecuador on 9 February 2025. Incumbent president Daniel Noboa will face leftist candidate Luisa González in the runoff scheduled on 13 April. This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first and second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each…

Question 5

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Accepted Answer

24h volume ($6.15K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Question 6

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Accepted Answer

Vultax loaded 2 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 100.0% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Question 7

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Accepted Answer

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Apr 19, 12:06 AM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Question 8

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

Accepted Answer

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/ecuador-presidential-election-margin-of-victory-1) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Bucket	Close	Mid
Apr 19, 12:00 AM UTC	0.1%	0.1%
Apr 18, 12:00 AM UTC	0.1%	0.1%
Apr 17, 12:00 AM UTC	0.1%	0.1%

Will Daniel Noboa win by 4-6%?

Ecuador Presidential Election Margin of Victory

Questions about this market