What is the “Will Daniel Noboa win by 4-6%?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Will Daniel Noboa win by 4-6%? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “Ecuador Presidential Election Margin of Victory”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on 19 Apr 2025. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.

How does this market resolve?

General elections were held in Ecuador on 9 February 2025. Incumbent president Daniel Noboa will face leftist candidate Luisa González in the runoff scheduled on 13 April. This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first and second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who still holds shares in this market?

2 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Apr 19, 12:06 AM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/ecuador-presidential-election-margin-of-victory-1) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Resolved No: Will Daniel Noboa win by 4-6%?

Market referencewill-daniel-noboa-win-by-4-6-1Updated Apr 19, 2025 UTC

Resolved

No · settled Apr 19, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$6.2K

Resolved

Settled

Apr 19, 2025 UTC

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Apr 20, 2025 UTC

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Apr 19, 2025 UTC

This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Resolved

Order book

Captured book available

Final outcome

The resolved venue state is treated as proof of resolution; holder and trade rows are settlement context.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

Wallets

Top 10 share

100%

Yes / No shares

3.24K / 6.39K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

Wallets

Loaded notional

$432.35

Yes sell at 0.1%

History rangePolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Apr 19, 12:00 AM UTC

Points

Move

-2.3 pts

Range

0.1% - 25.1%

Apr 12, 12:00 AM UTC to Apr 19, 12:00 AM UTC

TradesRecent market trade tape linked back into trader pages.

Full tapeCheckSubscriber depth access is checked only when requested, keeping the public page fast.

Trader	Side	Outcome	Price	Shares	Time
Snoorrason	sell	Yes	0.1%	12.83	Apr 14, 9:55 PM UTC
syytjw	buy	No

Ecuador Presidential Election Margin of Victory

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Will Daniel Noboa win by 4-6%?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Will Daniel Noboa win by 4-6%? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “Ecuador Presidential Election Margin of Victory”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
How did this market resolve?: It resolved No on 19 Apr 2025. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
How does this market resolve?: General elections were held in Ecuador on 9 February 2025. Incumbent president Daniel Noboa will face leftist candidate Luisa González in the runoff scheduled on 13 April. This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first and second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Trader

Side

Outcome

Price

Time

Snoorrason

sell

Yes

0.1%

12.83

Apr 14, 9:55 PM UTC

syytjw

buy