Will Daniel Noboa win by 8% or more?

Resolved

Yes, settled Apr 18, 2025 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$2.0K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Apr 18, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 18 Apr 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 95%. Yes opened at 3% on 12 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 12 Apr 2025 to 18 Apr 2025, the highest close was 95% on 17 Apr 2025 and the lowest 1.3% on 13 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 52 points up, to 53.1% on 14 Apr 2025. $2.02K traded over the market's life.

3 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Apr 20, 12:26 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 12 Apr 2025 – 18 Apr 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
12 Apr 2025	3.0%
18 Apr 2025	95.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	6.39K
CoffeeLover	Yes	0.06
HolyMoses7VerifiedVerified Polymarket profile	Yes	0.04

3 of 3 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

General elections were held in Ecuador on 9 February 2025. Incumbent president Daniel Noboa will face leftist candidate Luisa González in the runoff scheduled on 13 April. This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first and second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receive by the sum of all votes cast in Ecuadorian Presidential Election runoff. This market will resolve solely based on the first official vote count released by the Ecuadorian Government, specifically the National Electoral Council (https://www.cne.gob.ec/). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.