Analytics
Yes is at 0.1%, down 49 points from 49.5% when the market opened on 10 Oct 2025.
Across the 356 daily closes on record from 10 Oct 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (29 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 49.5% on 10 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 10 Jun 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 0.1%; a month before, 0.1%. Its largest one-day move was 40 points down, to 10% on 11 Oct 2025.
Daniel Mercuri ranks 14th of the 23 outcomes in “California Governor Election Winner”. Xavier Becerra leads at 96.6%; Steve Hilton is at 2.9%.
$1.4M traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $359.75K, with a 0.05% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $12.99 bought Yes and $17.69K bought No; the largest was a $3.03K buy of No at 99.9¢.
The largest Yes position is JustCrazy with 132.9K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 460.1K. Ten wallets hold 88.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 7 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 4:50 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 356 points, 10 Oct 2025 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2025 | 49.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 0.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 460.13K |
| JustCrazy | Yes | 132.91K |
| 1BTCis1BTC | Yes | 79.98K |
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/california-governor-election-2026
10 more outcomes, none above 0.1%.
| BabyGroot | Yes | 51K |
| gopay | Yes | 30K |
| donthackme | Yes | 14.76K |
| e46m3 | Yes | 12.98K |
| Bigggggggg | Yes | 12.55K |
| debased | Yes | 8.89K |
| Lucerys | Yes | 8.42K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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