Will Daniel Keenan be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?

politicsResolved

No, settled Jul 22, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$22.8K

Resolved

Settled

Jul 22, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 22 Jul 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 87.5%. Yes opened at 41% on 26 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 27 daily closes on record from 26 Jun 2026 to 22 Jul 2026, the highest close was 59.5% on 27 Jun 2026 and the lowest 8% on 16 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 22.5% on 8 Jul 2026. $22.76K traded over the market's life.

36 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jul 23, 3:56 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 27 points, 26 Jun 2026 – 22 Jul 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
26 Jun 2026	41.0%
22 Jul 2026	12.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	3.88K
0xSuperRekt	Yes	1.14K
Keen Kestrel E421	Yes	650.38
LiquidatedDegen	Yes	600

10 of 36 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.