Analytics
Yes is at 25.5%, down 35 points from 60% when the market opened on 14 Oct 2025.
Across the 351 daily closes on record from 14 Oct 2025 to 24 Oct 2026 (25 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 78% on 27 Oct 2025 and the lowest 19.5% on 23 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 25.5%; a month before, 21.5%. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 49.5% on 15 Nov 2025.
Sen. Dan Sullivan ranks second of the 7 outcomes in “Alaska Senate Election Winner”. Mary Peltola leads at 74.5%; Ann Diener is at 0.1%.
$10.19K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $619.04K since listing. The order book holds $232.17K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is BreakTheBank with 134.1K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 87.1K. Ten wallets hold 67.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 11 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 6:34 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 351 points, 14 Oct 2025 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2025 | 60.0% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 25.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| BreakTheBank | Yes | 134.06K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 87.14K |
| 0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8 | No | 68.91K |
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/alaska-senate-election-winner
| ClauseAI | Yes | 25K |
| gopfan2 | No | 23.13K |
| AllByMyseIf | No | 12K |
| DannyChantom | Yes | 10K |
| lava-lava | Yes | 7.81K |
| Chungvicular | Yes | 7.5K |
| brte | No | 6K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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