Analytics
Resolved No on 6 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 33% on 5 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 25 daily closes on record from 5 Feb 2026 to 6 Mar 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 41.5% on 15 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 4 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 10 points up, to 36.5% on 14 Feb 2026.
22 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 7, 11:53 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 25 points, 5 Feb 2026 – 6 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Feb 2026 | 33.0% |
| 6 Mar 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Lunar Quasar A0B1 | Yes | 988.53 |
| CryptoSnoopy | Yes | 950 |
| FrankyFourFingers | Yes | 641.69 |
| zhaoyakeng | Yes | 180 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton, John Cornyn becomes the favorite in the "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" (https://polymarket.com/event/texas-republican-senate-primary-winner) for any four-hour period ending by March 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. John Cornyn will be considered to have become the favorite for any four-hour period if he is ahead of Ken Paxton in more individual minutes than Ken Paxton is ahead of John Cornyn during a qualifying time period. A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice. If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/will-cornyn-flip-paxton-for-texas-rep-senate-primary-winner or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the two-hour period window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-cornyn-flip-paxton-for-texas-rep-senate-primary-winner-by-march-2
| qiaojiazhui | Yes | 168.13 |
| anranwo | Yes | 167 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 164 |
| 88mnm88 | Yes | 150 |
| zhiyunao | Yes | 149.29 |
| jiamuqiao | Yes | 145 |
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