Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 32.5% on 12 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 53 daily closes on record from 12 Dec 2025 to 1 Feb 2026, the highest close was 35% on 21 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 31 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 34.5% on 17 Dec 2025. $17.59K traded over the market's life.
18 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 1, 8:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 53 points, 12 Dec 2025 – 1 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Dec 2025 | 32.5% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton, John Cornyn becomes the favorite in the "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" (https://polymarket.com/event/texas-republican-senate-primary-winner) for any four-hour period ending by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. John Cornyn will be considered to have become the favorite for any four-hour period if he is ahead of Ken Paxton in more individual minutes than Ken Paxton is ahead of John Cornyn during a qualifying time period. A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice. If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/will-cornyn-flip-paxton-for-texas-rep-senate-primary-winner-by-jan-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the two-hour period window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-cornyn-flip-paxton-for-texas-rep-senate-primary-winner-by-jan-31
| Yes |
| 26.97 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 15 |
| rocket661 | Yes | 15 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 14.99 |
| trotzstirn | Yes | 11 |
| stph81 | Yes | 10 |
| Nation92 | Yes | 2.94 |
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