Analytics
Yes is at 34.5%, up 6.5 points from 28% when the market opened on 25 Sep 2026.
Across the 32 daily closes on record from 25 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 64% on 27 Oct 2026 and the lowest 10% on 29 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 32%; a month before, 32.5%. Its largest one-day move was 23 points down, to 10% on 29 Sep 2026.
It is one of 4 markets under “What will Claude Sonnet's output token price hit in 2026?”.
$80 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.6K since listing. The order book holds $194.42, with a 5.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 80 trades, $179.74 bought Yes and $690.05 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 223 shares; the largest No position is Started-with-20-USD with 250.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 6:42 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 32 points, 25 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Sep 2026 | 28.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 34.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Started-with-20-USD | No | 250.22 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 222.7 |
| SmartBoyBilly | No | 104.35 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the standard output token price of Anthropic's latest Claude Sonnet model is equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the price specified in the title, in USD per million tokens, at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Anthropic's latest Claude Sonnet model means the model with the highest version number among models by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet, such as Claude Sonnet 4.6 or Claude Sonnet 5, that have a standard output token price listed on Anthropic's official API pricing page. If more than one such model shares the highest version number, the most recently released of them applies. Only models that are publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups, will be considered; models available only through a closed beta or any form of private or limited access will not qualify. The relevant price is the “Base tokens” output price on Anthropic’s official API pricing page for default global inference, at the rate applicable to requests that do not trigger a long-context surcharge. Prices for batch, fast mode, cached, or US-only inference and other data-residency variants will not be considered. Any promotional, temporary, or volume-discount pricing will not be used for resolution; only the standard listed API price applies. A price qualifies only while the model is Anthropic's latest Claude Sonnet model as defined above, after market creation. The resolution source for this market will be Anthropic's official API pricing page (https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing). Official announcements and archived copies of this page may be used to confirm prices and when they were displayed; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-claude-sonnet-output-token-price-hit-in-2026
| tradetosurvive1 | Yes | 97 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 45.58 |
| pombos | Yes | 20 |
| Slackjaw | Yes | 20 |
| Carabao | No | 20 |
| 2B9S | No | 20 |
| PPMT | No | 19.68 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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