Analytics
Yes is at 16.5%, down 16 points from 32.5% when the market opened on 2 Oct 2026.
Across the 20 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2026 to 23 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 48.5% on 16 Oct 2026 and the lowest 16.5% on 23 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 48.5%. Its largest one-day move was 11 points up, to 39% on 4 Oct 2026.
5-7 ranks second of the 5 outcomes in “Will Claude go down on __ days in October?”. <5 leads at 82.3%; 8-10 is at 0.5%.
$246.6 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $9.04K since listing. The order book holds $3.22K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 291 trades, $1.32K bought Yes and $1.74K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Conscious-Belligerency with 320 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.4K. Ten wallets hold 82% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 9 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 23, 6:24 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 2 Oct 2026 – 23 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 32.5% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 16.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.44K |
| Conscious-Belligerency | Yes | 320.27 |
| Mundane-Divider | Yes | 283.53 |
This market will resolve according to the number of days in October 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-october
| AJSV | Yes | 237.83 |
| themagicofcinema | Yes | 199.38 |
| SmartBoyBilly | Yes | 174.59 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 128.73 |
| cigarettes | No | 127.88 |
| youtube-trader | No | 77.3 |
| 1x6891589732cf8beaaf424b117d5c5c20919f6bb9 | Yes | 59.97 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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