Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 24.5% on 30 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 34 daily closes on record from 30 Jul 2026 to 1 Sep 2026, the highest close was 24.5% on 30 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 29 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 6.5% on 3 Aug 2026. $5.92K traded over the market's life.
38 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:04 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 34 points, 30 Jul 2026 – 1 Sep 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | 24.5% |
| 1 Sep 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3K |
| ACara | Yes | 836.63 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 498.93 |
| 79fsdfs | Yes | 323.85 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-august-20260728182414700
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 269.65 |
| Yearly-Carpet | Yes | 220.73 |
| Shy-Note | Yes | 200 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
| e46m3 | Yes | 118.43 |
| Viberoni | Yes | 116.23 |
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