Analytics
Resolved No on 15 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 78.5% on 5 Feb 2026. Before it settled, the high was 78.5% on 5 Feb 2026 and the low 0.1% on 15 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 61 points down, to 18% on 6 Feb 2026. $353.36K traded over the market's life.
174 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 28, 11:04 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 11 points, 5 Feb 2026 – 15 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Feb 2026 | 78.5% |
| 15 Feb 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Don8888888888888888888 | Yes | 6.2K |
| Scary-Camper | Yes | 4.43K |
| Wazara | Yes | 3.2K |
| HoppyTrader | Yes | 2.92K |
| Rumpelstiltskin | Yes | 2.44K |
| ComeBackOrBust | Yes | 2K |
| Election8 | Yes | 1.85K |
| S888 | Yes | 1.76K |
| emphoriz | Yes | 1.69K |
| 0x750738482avvdwi7 | Yes | 1.28K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by February 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/claude-5-released-by
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
