Analytics
Yes is at 17.5%, down 34 points from 51.5% when the market opened on 15 Oct 2026.
Across the 13 daily closes on record from 15 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 51.5% on 15 Oct 2026 and the lowest 11.5% on 21 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 13%. Its largest one-day move was 38 points down, to 14% on 16 Oct 2026.
It is one of 15 markets under “Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Nominations”.
$770.94 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.86K since listing. The order book holds $2.87K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 55 trades, $142.28 bought Yes and $697.42 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 455 shares; the largest No position is justmeandme with 171.
Trading closes on 15 Mar 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:23 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 15 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | 51.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 17.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 455.2 |
| justmeandme | No | 171 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 150 |
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/oscars-2027-best-adapted-screenplay-nominations-20261013180153422
3 more markets, none above 4.3%.
| thursdays |
| No |
| 137.57 |
| leectram2 | No | 106.64 |
| PPMT | No | 60 |
| lolzzzlol | No | 53.38 |
| richyee | No | 50 |
| napamen | Yes | 40 |
| wallet-account-test | No | 34 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
