Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 2.3% on 18 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 49 daily closes on record from 18 Aug 2026 to 5 Oct 2026, the highest close was 2.3% on 18 Aug 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Sep 2026. $1.82K traded over the market's life.
27 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 49 points, 18 Aug 2026 – 5 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Aug 2026 | 2.3% |
| 5 Oct 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.84K |
| e46m3 | Yes | 710.74 |
| korda77 | Yes | 218 |
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-1st-place-in-rio-grande-do-sul
Start here: the 25 October runoff, the polls, the Polymarket odds and the results, in one guide.
Why a candidate's poll share and market price measure different things, and how to read them side by side.
When the count begins on 25 October, and where the electoral court publishes the official results.
| Yes |
| 150 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
| Fluo | Yes | 100 |
| Attached-Prairie | Yes | 77.77 |
| 123987456 | Yes | 70 |
| Turbulent-Decline-Router | Yes | 69 |
| balthazar | Yes | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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