Analytics
Resolved Yes on 5 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 89.8%. Yes opened at 48% on 23 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 105 daily closes on record from 23 Apr 2026 to 5 Aug 2026, the highest close was 95% on 4 Aug 2026 and the lowest 35% on 24 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 54.5% on 18 Jul 2026. $16.03K traded over the market's life.
35 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 105 points, 23 Apr 2026 – 5 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Apr 2026 | 48.0% |
| 5 Aug 2026 | 89.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.85K |
| lissartter | No | 981.73 |
| Worse-Scenario | No | 404.95 |
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/mo-06-republican-primary-winner
| No |
| 250 |
| GuyFromTinder | No | 157.9 |
| Zarshka | No | 100 |
| AMAM13 | No | 97 |
| TENETENET | No | 85.1 |
| bechamel | No | 50.33 |
| .Menthe | No | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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