Analytics
Yes is at 97.4%, up 16 points from 81% when the market opened on 22 Jan 2026.
Across the 243 daily closes on record from 22 Jan 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (38 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 97.3% on 29 Oct 2026 and the lowest 57.5% on 7 Mar 2026. The current quote, 97.4%, is above every close in that window; the latest close was 97.3% on 29 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 96.4%; a month before, 92%. Its largest one-day move was 36 points down, to 57.5% on 7 Mar 2026.
4.0–5.0% is the favourite of the 10 outcomes in “China Annual GDP Growth 2026”, ahead of 5.0–6.0% at 1.8%.
$89.98 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $247.25K since listing. The order book holds $12.62K, with a 0.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $31.91K bought Yes and $406.96 bought No; the largest was a $2.6K sell of Yes at 86.6¢.
The largest Yes position is Insidious-Workshop-Tamale with 7.4K shares; the largest No position is zhaoyk with 35.3K. Ten wallets hold 68.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Jan 2027, 94 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 3:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 243 points, 22 Jan 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Jan 2026 | 81.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 97.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| zhaoyk | No | 35.28K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 35.22K |
| Insidious-Workshop-Tamale | Yes | 7.35K |
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027. The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/china-annual-gdp-growth-2026
| yikaiz | No | 7.28K |
| J-W | Yes | 5.64K |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul | Yes | 5K |
| mazw8 | Yes | 4.79K |
| DongwangWin | Yes | 4.56K |
| Neon Oracle A8A9 | Yes | 4.38K |
| KTKK | Yes | 4K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
