Analytics
Yes is at 48%, up 12 points from 36% when the market opened on 21 Oct 2026.
Across the 6 daily closes on record from 21 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 49% on 28 Oct 2026 and the lowest 36% on 21 Oct 2026.
4.3-4.6% is the favourite of the 9 outcomes in “China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q4 2026?”, ahead of 4.6-4.9% at 48%.
$44.04 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $3.63K since listing. The order book holds $2.34K, with a 4.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 100 trades, $693.89 bought Yes and $888.39 bought No.
The largest Yes position is fqy2026 with 1.6K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.2K. Ten wallets hold 97.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Feb 2027, 94 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:01 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 21 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 30%–55%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Oct 2026 | 36.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 47.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| fqy2026 | Yes | 1.6K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.22K |
| Antony82 | No | 500 |
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled for some time in January 2027. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/china-gdp-growth-yy-in-q4-2026
| AiBird |
| No |
| 299.99 |
| Insidious-Workshop-Tamale | Yes | 159.21 |
| Ross1983 | Yes | 106.38 |
| tradetosurvive1 | Yes | 88.8 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 75.9 |
| zeitfi-vault-v2 | Yes | 30.64 |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da. | No | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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