Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 10?

Resolved

No, settled Mar 11, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$1.3K

Resolved

Settled

Mar 11, 2026 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy World leaders

Where it stands

Resolved No on 11 Mar 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 70.5%. Yes opened at 22.5% on 10 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 10 Mar 2026 to 11 Mar 2026, the highest close was 29.5% on 11 Mar 2026 and the lowest 22.5% on 10 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7 points up, to 29.5% on 11 Mar 2026. $1.3K traded over the market's life.

5 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 12, 4:15 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 10 Mar 2026 – 11 Mar 2026, chart shows 20%–35%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
10 Mar 2026	22.5%
11 Mar 2026	29.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
bjprolo	Yes	100
wendypeekaboo	Yes	100
bnvghugu	Yes	27.03

5 of 5 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ChatGPT is no longer the iOS app ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps" by the specified date, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If ChatGPT is no longer the #1 free app in the US Apple App Store at any point before the listed date, 11:59PM ET, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).