Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 14?

Resolved

No, settled Feb 15, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$40.4K

Resolved

Settled

Feb 15, 2026 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy World leaders

Where it stands

Resolved No on 15 Feb 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 92.4%. Yes opened at 50% on 12 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 12 Feb 2026 to 15 Feb 2026, the highest close was 50% on 12 Feb 2026 and the lowest 7.5% on 14 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 41 points down, to 9% on 13 Feb 2026. $40.44K traded over the market's life.

28 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Feb 16, 8:23 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 12 Feb 2026 – 15 Feb 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
12 Feb 2026	50.0%
15 Feb 2026	7.6%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
TENETENET	Yes	1K
MistahFox	Yes	751
Emerald Pioneer D14A	Yes	389

10 of 28 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ChatGPT is no longer the iOS app ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps" by the specified date, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).