Analytics
Resolved No on 22 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 25% on 11 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 42 daily closes on record from 11 Jun 2025 to 22 Jul 2025, the highest close was 25% on 11 Jun 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 21 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 1.3% on 12 Jun 2025. $68.44K traded over the market's life.
21 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 22, 11:05 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 42 points, 11 Jun 2025 – 22 Jul 2025, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jun 2025 | 25.0% |
| 22 Jul 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 30.28K |
| wegothis | Yes | 7.34K |
| srbetter | Yes | 6.25K |
The 27th general election of the House of Councillors is scheduled to be held in Japan by July 27, 2025, to elect half of the 248 members of the House of Councillors, the upper house of the National Diet, for a term of six years. This market will resolve to the political party that controls the most seats in Japan's House of Councillors as a result of the upcoming election, not any coalition of which it may be a part. If voting in the next Japanese election for the House of Councillors does not occur by December 31, 2025, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between a party and any other for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed for a party, the name of that party will be used. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based solely on the certified results as reported by Japan's government, specifically the Central Election Management Council (https://www.e-stat.go.jp/stat-search/files?page=1&toukei=00200236). Certified results are typically published within 5 days of the election.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/japan-house-of-councillors-election
| Yes |
| 1.5K |
| facald | Yes | 835.17 |
| Alex255385 | Yes | 793.65 |
| Ricds | Yes | 519.43 |
| Gromp | Yes | 250 |
| LemonGrab | Yes | 236.99 |
| RepublicOfChina | Yes | 173.17 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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