Analytics
Resolved No on 23 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 47% on 16 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 38 daily closes on record from 16 Jun 2026 to 23 Jul 2026, the highest close was 48.5% on 20 Jun 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 23 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 48 points down, to 0.8% on 21 Jun 2026. $894.49 traded over the market's life.
13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 23, 5:12 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 38 points, 16 Jun 2026 – 23 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Jun 2026 | 47.0% |
| 23 Jul 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 611.38 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
| Lavincey | Yes | 125 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to the next team Casemiro officially joins by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If Casemiro joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other". If Casemiro is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". An official transfer announcement prior to the market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Manchester United and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/where-will-casemiro-transfer-20260612232455096
| cwc909 | Yes | 50 |
| yippers | Yes | 25 |
| HappyHippocampus | Yes | 25 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 15 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 13.99 |
| dropmeplease | Yes | 10 |
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