Analytics
Yes is at 5.9%, down 42 points from 48% when the market opened on 11 Jun 2026.
Across the 97 daily closes on record from 11 Jun 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (46 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 48% on 11 Jun 2026 and the lowest 1.1% on 19 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 7.7%; a month before, 6.1%. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 1.1% on 19 Jul 2026.
Jim Chalmers ranks fourth of the 6 outcomes in “Prime Minister of Australia after next election?”. Anthony Albanese leads at 45%; Pauline Hanson is at 21.5%.
$1.05K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $5.15K, with a 8.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is LornaPredicts with 154 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 579.
Trading closes on 24 Sep 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 2:09 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 97 points, 11 Jun 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jun 2026 | 48.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 5.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 579.39 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 154.16 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 121.13 |
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-australia-after-the-next-election-20260610170604224
| balthazar | Yes | 100 |
| probability | Yes | 55.34 |
| VonVonagh | Yes | 50 |
| Original-Anything-Petition | Yes | 30 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 21 |
| mapleggg | Yes | 20 |
| Pointed-Wilderness | Yes | 14.04 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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