Analytics
Yes is at 45%, up 2 points from 43% when the market opened on 11 Jun 2026.
Across the 132 daily closes on record from 11 Jun 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (11 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 53% on 14 Jun 2026 and the lowest 35.5% on 12 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 39%; a month before, 45.5%. Its largest one-day move was 14 points up, to 51% on 13 Jun 2026.
Anthony Albanese is the favourite of the 6 outcomes in “Prime Minister of Australia after next election?”, ahead of Pauline Hanson at 21.5%.
$20 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $5.33K since listing. The order book holds $29.71K, with a 4.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 124 trades, $870.13 bought Yes and $1.08K bought No.
The largest Yes position is CompulsiveGambler with 739 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 579. Ten wallets hold 76.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 24 Sep 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:53 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 132 points, 11 Jun 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 30%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jun 2026 | 43.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 45.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| CompulsiveGambler | Yes | 739.32 |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 579.39 |
| Attester | No | 482.63 |
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-australia-after-the-next-election-20260610170604224
| norrisfan | Yes | 386.34 |
| SmartBoyBilly | No | 300 |
| AusMaximus | No | 292.09 |
| Rr55 | Yes | 200 |
| Haradwaith | No | 169.48 |
| Heskel2 | No | 150.01 |
| dolboyob | Yes | 133.39 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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