Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 30.5% on 12 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 210 daily closes on record from 12 Feb 2026 to 5 Oct 2026 (26 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 30.5% on 12 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 6 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 28 points down, to 2.5% on 13 Feb 2026. $207.86K traded over the market's life.
109 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 210 points, 12 Feb 2026 – 5 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Feb 2026 | 30.5% |
| 5 Oct 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 418.4K |
| JustCrazy | Yes | 67.37K |
| Bigggggggg | Yes | 51.39K |
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-2nd-place
Start here: the 25 October runoff, the polls, the Polymarket odds and the results, in one guide.
Why a candidate's poll share and market price measure different things, and how to read them side by side.
When the count begins on 25 October, and where the electoral court publishes the official results.
| balthazar | Yes | 33.54K |
| e46m3 | Yes | 19.17K |
| blue-musketeer | Yes | 13.99K |
| Hourglass | Yes | 9.83K |
| alex20011 | Yes | 9.76K |
| Ninalinda | Yes | 7.93K |
| dinod | Yes | 4.54K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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