Analytics
Yes is at 8.5%, down 32 points from 40.5% when the market opened on 14 Jul 2026.
Across the 104 daily closes on record from 14 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 15 Jul 2026 and the lowest 8% on 19 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 8.5%; a month before, 16.5%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 11% on 18 Jul 2026.
It is one of 4 markets under “Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?”.
$660 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $50.6K since listing. The order book holds $25.16K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 246 trades, $516.45 bought Yes and $20.37K bought No; the largest was a $7.19K buy of No at 84.5¢.
The largest Yes position is AiBird with 4K shares; the largest No position is Reckless-Estrogen-Competence with 8.2K. Ten wallets hold 94.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jul 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 2:55 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 104 points, 14 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Jul 2026 | 40.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 8.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Reckless-Estrogen-Competence | No | 8.17K |
| AiBird | Yes | 4K |
| PaddyAlpha | Yes | 1.44K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is added to the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying addition occurs when the specified company that was unnamed in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying addition must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of addition. Addition of a subsidiary or parent company of the specified company will qualify. An addition will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn. For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the company is added but its status is unenforced, the addition will still qualify. If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).
Official listing:
| Haradwaith | Yes | 628.85 |
| JesusFK | Yes | 516.66 |
| Digital-Boy | Yes | 355.92 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 237.79 |
| shgrkybo8 | Yes | 173.57 |
| 0xzipper | Yes | 164.65 |
| 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F | Yes | 108.82 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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