Analytics
Resolved No on 6 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 4% on 19 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 139 daily closes on record from 19 Dec 2024 to 6 May 2025, the highest close was 10% on 24 Dec 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 5 May 2025. $1.02M traded over the market's life.
53 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 8, 12:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 139 points, 19 Dec 2024 – 6 May 2025, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Dec 2024 | 4.0% |
| 6 May 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TimeTraveler | Yes | 11.62K |
| AAAZZZ888 | Yes | 11.02K |
| joe.night2024 | Yes | 2.81K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance – Reason and Justice (BSW, Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht – Vernunft und Gerechtigkeit) is a part of the first federal government formed after the 2025 German Parliamentary election scheduled to take place February 23. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no government is formed by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcements from the governing coalition, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-be-part-of-next-german-government
New to prediction markets?
| Yes |
| 2.6K |
| farmersrick | Yes | 2.53K |
| AluCard | Yes | 1.64K |
| Roman12345 | Yes | 1K |
| NRXO519 | Yes | 700 |
| MPH | Yes | 564.33 |
| TrapperJoe | Yes | 306.38 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
