Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 18.5% on 24 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 163 daily closes on record from 24 Jul 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 18.5% on 24 Jul 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 31 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points down, to 3% on 12 Sep 2025. $12.95K traded over the market's life.
42 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 163 points, 24 Jul 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2025 | 18.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| oryn69 | Yes | 738.24 |
| Tonymontana96 | Yes | 458.41 |
| FrosenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Jair Bolsonaro has left Brazil for any length of time between July 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In cases where Jair Bolsonaro may have exited Brazilian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Brazil for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Jair Bolsonaro exits Brazilian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Jair Bolsonaro left Brazil, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-bolsonaro-leave-brazil-in-2025
Start here: the 25 October runoff, the polls, the Polymarket odds and the results, in one guide.
Why a candidate's poll share and market price measure different things, and how to read them side by side.
When the count begins on 25 October, and where the electoral court publishes the official results.
| Yes |
| 310.03 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 253.8 |
| jokerman82 | Yes | 248.99 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 225.96 |
| S888 | Yes | 199.04 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 172.9 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 161.92 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 145 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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