Analytics
Yes is at 68%, up 12 points from 56% when the market opened on 3 Jun 2026.
Across the 145 daily closes on record from 3 Jun 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 76.5% on 29 Aug 2026 and the lowest 56% on 3 Jun 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 68.5%; a month before, 69%. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 64% on 5 Sep 2026.
Bola Tinubu is the favourite of the 8 outcomes in “Nigerian Presidential Election Winner”, ahead of Peter Obi at 21.5%.
$63 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $89.07K since listing. The order book holds $28.74K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $16.55K bought Yes and $3K bought No; the largest was a $5.33K sell of Yes at 65.2¢.
The largest Yes position is Asotele with 6.9K shares; the largest No position is RememberAmalek with 8.9K. Ten wallets hold 81.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 17 Jan 2027, 79 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 2:59 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 145 points, 3 Jun 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 50%–90%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Jun 2026 | 56.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 68.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| RememberAmalek | No | 8.88K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 7.23K |
| Asotele | Yes | 6.9K |
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Nigeria on January 16, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nigerian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Nigerian government sources, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://www.inecnigeria.org/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nigerian-presidential-election-winner-20260602162945585
| hippopol |
| Yes |
| 6.85K |
| realbengvir | No | 3.65K |
| LBOJ | Yes | 2.86K |
| SnapElectionAvoider | No | 2.19K |
| buoys | No | 1.5K |
| 0x49F206 | Yes | 1.01K |
| Turbulent-Decline-Router | Yes | 849.27 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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