Analytics
Resolved No on 2 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 23% on 19 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 75 daily closes on record from 19 Apr 2025 to 2 Jul 2025, the highest close was 38% on 21 Apr 2025 and the lowest 0.2% on 2 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 12 points up, to 35.5% on 20 Apr 2025. $100.41K traded over the market's life.
16 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 4:24 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 75 points, 19 Apr 2025 – 2 Jul 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Apr 2025 | 23.0% |
| 2 Jul 2025 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 294.19 |
| redhaze | Yes | 45 |
| Futurologic | Yes | 34.48 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
On March 25, Minister of Defenсe of Ukraine Rustem Umerov announced an agreement to “cease the use of force, and to prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea." (see: https://x.com/rustem_umerov/status/1904549644463427740) This market will resolve to “Yes” if an agreement between Russia and Ukraine to suspend or end military actions on the Black Sea goes into effect by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means that a qualifying deal is actively implemented for any amount of time. This market's primary resolution source will be confirmation that the agreement is in effect by the governments of Ukraine and Russia, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming the deal is in effect may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-black-sea-ceasefire-go-into-effect-before-july
| No |
| 15.38 |
| alexwehry | Yes | 15.15 |
| Apostro | Yes | 6.45 |
| gamerdan2nd | No | 1.43 |
| Rocky931 | Yes | 0.07 |
| Coral Scout 36D8 | Yes | 0.01 |
| SYSY.CN | No | 0.01 |
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