Analytics
Resolved Yes on 1 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 51.5%. Yes opened at 60% on 25 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 17 daily closes on record from 25 Mar 2026 to 1 May 2026 (21 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 77.5% on 25 Apr 2026 and the lowest 51.5% on 30 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 56.5% on 26 Apr 2026. $5.74K traded over the market's life.
23 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 11:40 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 17 points, 25 Mar 2026 – 1 May 2026, chart shows 40%–90%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Mar 2026 | 60.0% |
| 1 May 2026 | 51.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Curvy-Litmus | No | 158.34 |
| Rapid Voyager DDB4 | No | 66.4 |
| hfgh26 | No | 50 |
| rolller | No | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Rules
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-bitcoin-outperform-in-april
| linfdgd56 | No | 50 |
| hesure | No | 50 |
| fyrj | No | 49.99 |
| tacomito | No | 40.06 |
| fhdfd | No | 40 |
| Amber Pioneer D271 | No | 34.31 |
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