Analytics
Resolved Yes on 4 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 69.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 13 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 228 daily closes on record from 13 Nov 2025 to 4 Jul 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 88% on 30 Nov 2025 and the lowest 42.4% on 16 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 30 points up, to 87.9% on 24 Nov 2025. $2.45K traded over the market's life.
8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 5, 7:05 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 228 points, 13 Nov 2025 – 4 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Nov 2025 | 50.0% |
| 4 Jul 2026 | 69.5% |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new song between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released song or single is officially available for download or streaming (not including live performances, recordings of live performances, or leaks) by the resolution date. Live versions, re-releases, deluxe editions, or similar non-original or altered versions of previously released songs will not count. Songs where the listed artist appears only as a secondary or featured performer, rather than the primary artist, will also not count. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the credits of the below-listed resolution sources (e.g., the song ‘girl, get up.’ counts as a new release for SZA as she is, equally to Doechii, labeled “Main Artist” in the Spotify credits to the song, regardless of feature indication in the title). For listed groups of artists, tracks released by individual members, sub-units, or under any designation other than the listed group name will not count toward resolution. The primary resolution sources will be official streaming and download platforms. In cases of ambiguity over how a song/album is labeled, the listed resolution sources will be consulted in the following order of precedence: Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Music, and Deezer.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-artists-will-release-a-new-song-in-2026
| niglette | No | 17.2 |
| 25oodksmsss09 | No | 10 |
| Mojito9 | No | 10 |
| Cosmic Signal BD30 | No | 4.81 |
| CatalinRadut | No | 4.17 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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