Analytics
Yes is at 5.3%, down 1.7 points from 7% when the market opened on 21 Jul 2026.
The high was 11.5% on 22 Jul 2026 and the low 3.5% on 23 Sep 2026. A week ago Yes was at 4.5%; a month ago, 6.5%. Its largest one-day move was 6 points down, to 5.5% on 23 Jul 2026.
$78.42 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $8.33K since listing. The order book holds $9.15K, with a 1.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 106 trades, $249.77 bought Yes and $2.39K bought No.
The largest Yes position is SenseiEpstein with 877 shares; the largest No position is bravelittleguy with 1.3K. Ten wallets hold 84.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 76 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 18, 2:51 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 89 points, 21 Jul 2026 – 18 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Jul 2026 | 7.0% |
| 18 Oct 2026 | 5.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| bravelittleguy | No | 1.33K |
| SenseiEpstein | Yes | 877.3 |
| veinteuno | No | 315.79 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true: (i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed; (ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument; (iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or (iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center. The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds. Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/netanyahu-arrested-by-20260720194516248
| HerrieDavis |
| No |
| 296.65 |
| omnibus-424779 | Yes | 262.53 |
| thecaricature | Yes | 241.9 |
| Cosmic Pulse D3FC | Yes | 241.32 |
| fiter | Yes | 200.18 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 198.05 |
| playswith | No | 156.29 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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