Analytics
Yes is at 7.5%, down 1 point from 8.5% when the market opened on 27 Aug 2026.
Across the 58 daily closes on record from 27 Aug 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 12.5% on 7 Sep 2026 and the lowest 7% on 29 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 7.5%; a month before, 11.5%.
Bahrain ranks seventh of the 16 outcomes in “Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31?”. Yemen leads at 20%; Egypt is at 13.5%.
$1.88K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $10.23K, with a 5.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 52 trades, $37.56 bought Yes and $375.77 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Dr.PNL with 95 shares; the largest No position is Mst-br with 120. Ten wallets hold 93.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 6:02 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 58 points, 27 Aug 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2026 | 8.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 7.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Mst-br | No | 120 |
| Konfucious | No | 100 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 94.88 |
The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement (also known as the Makkah Accord or Mecca Joint Defense Agreement) is a collective-defense agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan on August 7, 2026, under which an armed attack against any one of the three countries is regarded as an attack against them all. The agreement has subsequently been described by its signatories as open to additional countries. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country formally joins the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The listed country will be considered to have formally joined if either of the following occurs: - the country signs the Agreement or a formal accession protocol or instrument that, by its terms or official characterization, makes it a party, member, or signatory; or - the country and the Agreement’s existing parties officially announce, jointly or separately, that the country has become a party, member, or signatory. Statements of intent, applications, invitations to join, negotiations, parliamentary authorization, approval in principle, or general defense cooperation will not qualify. A separate bilateral or multilateral defense agreement will not qualify unless it is officially identified as accession to the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement. Once a qualifying accession has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent withdrawal, suspension, reversal, or termination. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Pakistan, and the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-join-the-mecca-agreement-by-december-31
4 more outcomes, none above 2.3%.
| xtxpleasecallme |
| Yes |
| 75.71 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 43.31 |
| BAO95889 | No | 30 |
| PadreMaronno | No | 29.98 |
| thecaricature | Yes | 20 |
| 1x6891589732cf8beaaf424b117d5c5c20919f6bb9 | Yes | 20 |
| lolzzzlol | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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