Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 78% on 20 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 296 daily closes on record from 20 Nov 2025 to 1 Oct 2026 (20 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 79% on 21 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 30 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 29 points up, to 50% on 29 Apr 2026. $221.43K traded over the market's life.
143 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:03 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 296 points, 20 Nov 2025 – 1 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Nov 2025 | 78.0% |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| hitjnn214 | Yes | 14K |
| yeahyeahsure | Yes | 8.6K |
| jorgecheesey | Yes | 4.62K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-arc-launch-a-token-by
| Pavv | Yes | 4.12K |
| Zetherka | Yes | 4.06K |
| Crypto-Well | Yes | 3.33K |
| 0nyxx | Yes | 1.74K |
| arealhuman | Yes | 1.68K |
| runchian | Yes | 1.67K |
| Yebby | Yes | 1.37K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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