Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 5.5% on 20 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 44 daily closes on record from 20 Nov 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 6% on 21 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 30 Dec 2025. $16.45K traded over the market's life.
29 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 44 points, 20 Nov 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Nov 2025 | 5.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 8Eotx5qJmuUVd | Yes | 900 |
| tailevent | Yes | 600 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 310 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-arc-launch-a-token-by
| acal | Yes | 300 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 265 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 249 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 205 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 175 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 147 |
| 25oodksmsss09 | Yes | 137.82 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
