Analytics
Resolved No on 13 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 77.5%. Yes opened at 30% on 9 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 9 Jul 2026 to 13 Jul 2026, the highest close was 30% on 9 Jul 2026 and the lowest 12.5% on 10 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 12.5% on 10 Jul 2026. $567.48 traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 14, 6:10 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 9 Jul 2026 – 13 Jul 2026, chart shows 5%–35%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2026 | 30.0% |
| 13 Jul 2026 | 22.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Nosazemen | Yes | 96.17 |
| Indigo Atlas D4C6 | Yes | 50 |
| hesure | Yes | 25 |
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 10 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Episode 4 of House of the Dragon Season 3 is scheduled to air on July 12, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if anyone says the listed term during the specified episode of House of the Dragon. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If this episode of House of the Dragon has not been released in its entirety by July 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has been released up to that point. If no episode has been released by this time, or if the release is otherwise definitively cancelled, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the initial release of the named episode of House of the Dragon. Reruns, re-releases, or transcripts which differ from the initially released episode will not be considered. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-be-said-during-the-fourth-episode-of-house-of-the-dragon-season-3-20260707144111453
| lukzx | Yes | 9.52 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
| POB1 | Yes | 0.48 |
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