Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 25.5% on 5 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 82 daily closes on record from 5 Jan 2026 to 28 Mar 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 25.5% on 5 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.7% on 28 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points down, to 17% on 6 Jan 2026. $35.26K traded over the market's life.
30 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 1, 8:15 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 82 points, 5 Jan 2026 – 28 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Jan 2026 | 25.5% |
| 28 Mar 2026 | 0.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| S888 | Yes | 213.75 |
| Multicolored-Courage | Yes | 178.6 |
| frogposter | Yes | 124.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any individual in connection with any alleged fake daycare facility in Minnesota, and the charged person is officially deported from the United States by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. Deportation is defined as the formal removal of a person from the US by government authorities due to legal or administrative reasons. Voluntary departure, extradition, or relocation without an official deportation order will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-anyone-charged-over-daycare-fraud-in-minnesota-be-deported-by-march-31
| Yes |
| 85.11 |
| AK1992 | Yes | 60.27 |
| Slight-Ambiguity | Yes | 54.11 |
| Daddydila | Yes | 43.48 |
| mykimyke | Yes | 32.89 |
| Xandered | Yes | 31.15 |
| paas2 | Yes | 30 |
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