Analytics
Yes is at 21%, down 29 points from 50% when the market opened on 19 Sep 2026.
Across the 32 daily closes on record from 19 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (9 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 57% on 20 Sep 2026 and the lowest 17% on 20 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 19%; a month before, 40%. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 40% on 25 Sep 2026.
Anthropic ranks second of the 16 outcomes in “Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?”. OpenAI leads at 54%; Google is at 17%.
$47.76 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $9.12K since listing. The order book holds $421.64, with a 4.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 235 trades, $1.05K bought Yes and $1.78K bought No.
The largest Yes position is X10X10 with 538 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.2K. Ten wallets hold 93.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Dec 2026, 34 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 7:28 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 32 points, 19 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | 50.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 21.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.15K |
| X10X10 | Yes | 538.08 |
| 8dcc906a9b | Yes | 519.15 |
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/second-best-code-arena-webdev-ai-lab-end-of-november
4 more outcomes, none above 0.1%.
| asd56 |
| Yes |
| 100 |
| tradetosurvive1 | No | 70.38 |
| ebben | Yes | 64.26 |
| cigarettes | No | 60 |
| e46m3 | Yes | 42.04 |
| youtube-trader | Yes | 35 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 32.29 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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